Department or Program
The 2015 Paris Climate Accord allows each party to self-determine greenhouse gas mitigation targets as a contribution to the overall goal of keeping global temperature rise well below 2˚C above preindustrial levels. To better understand the factors that influence these mitigation targets – called Nationally Determined Contributions – I model them as a function of seven characteristics of the political economy: democracy level; oil, coal and natural gas rents; GDP; total greenhouse gas emissions; external debt stocks; net official development assistance and official aid received; and number of persons with access to electricity. I show that total greenhouse gas emissions is the most important determinant of pledged emission reductions. Variables that indicate higher levels of economic development generally correlate with higher NDCs. I also discern trends amongst the regressors along the lines of NDC type – whether the NDC is conditional or unconditional on external support, and whether it presupposes a business as usual scenario or figures emission reductions relative to a base year. Among other findings, I show that democracy level is only an important determinant for NDCs submitted unconditional on external support.
Level of Access
Restricted: Campus/Bates Community Only Access
Date of Graduation
Bachelor of Arts
Smith, Ezekiel Severin, "Modeling Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Climate Accord" (2019). Standard Theses. 201.
Number of Pages
Components of Thesis
1 pdf file
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